Taiwan’s mass release of the updated In Case of Crisis: Taiwan’s National Public Safety Guide, known as the “little orange book” to nearly 10 million households exposes the island’s profound vulnerability under China’s escalating military intimidation. Effective amid Beijing’s intensified pressure since President William Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, this 29-page comic-style handbook instructs citizens on stockpiling essentials, finding shelters via apps, and countering threats from cyberattacks to outright invasion.
Beijing’s Military Bullying Fuels Taiwan’s Survival Push
China’s aggression manifests in record-breaking PLA incursions: Taiwan recorded 248 sorties in January 2025 alone 1.75 times the prior peak and 3,070 median line crossings by year-end, doubling since Lai’s tenure began. Recent Incidents “Strait Thunder-2025A” drills simulated blockades, boarding inspections, and strikes across the Taiwan Strait, signaling a three-phase invasion blueprint: patrols, dominance, and isolation. Beijing deployed warships for vast “military operations” in December 2025, stretching hundreds of kilometers while amassing ships regionally to project overwhelming force. Labeling Lai a “separatist,” Xi Jinping’s regime has shattered communication channels, opting for coercion over dialogue.
The guide starkly warns of precursors like undersea cable sabotage, cyberwarfare, and vessel inspections tactics mirroring PLA exercises. It flags mainland apps (WeChat, TikTok, DeepSeek) as data risks and boldly declares any invasion surrender news “fake,” preempting Beijing’s disinformation to erode morale. China’s gold stockpiling and legal pretexts further hint at invasion preparations, defying international norms and US arms commitments to deter force.
Experts like ex-US Marine Michael Hunzeker fault its war avoidance, urging brutal honesty on threats to avoid paralysis, while Tamkang’s James Yi-fan calls for drills over booklets to counter anxiety. Beijing’s hypocrisy shines: while decrying the guide, its “prepare for war” orders and Han Kuang provocations force Taiwan’s hand.
This handbook underscores Beijing’s failure: despite bluster, coercion breeds resistance, not submission. Lai’s foreword insists safety rests on defense will, aligning with “whole-of-society resilience” via stockpiles and infrastructure against blockades. China’s sorties surged even during Lunar New Year 2025 (31 crossings), abandoning norms. Potential year-end mega-drills loom, per Taiwan intel.
To enhance Taiwan’s crisis preparedness, focus on expanding realistic drills, boosting public cyber and physical resilience, and strengthening communication despite PLA disruption. Promote nationwide awareness beyond the handbook through digital platforms and community engagement. Discuss balancing deterrence and diplomacy, scrutinizing Beijing’s brinkmanship, and deepening international support to counter Chinese coercion while maintaining societal unity and morale.
Taiwan’s move highlights Beijing’s isolation: US opposition to force, Japan’s alerts, and global scrutiny expose Xi’s expansionism as the true destabilizer. The “little orange book” isn’t fearmongering it’s a rational reply to a bully regime prioritizing hegemony over humanity.
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